Search results for " Crises"

Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis

2009

Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Intranasal midazolam for treating acute respiratory crises in a woman with stiff person syndrome.

2020

Stiff person syndrome (SPS) is a rare neurologic disorder characterized by progressively worsening rigidity and spasms of the axial and limb muscles. Dyspnea has been recently recognized as a common symptom in SPS,1 and life-threatening respiratory crises have been occasionally reported and suspected to be responsible for sudden death in these patients.2,3 The pathophysiologic mechanisms of these respiratory manifestations remain unclear. Some authors have hypothesized that rigidity and/or spasm of the muscles of the trunk could prevent normal rib cage movements and excursion of the diaphragm.1

The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt

2010

The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises for public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises are associated with a significant and long-lasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of the crisis. In particular, for severe crises, comparable to the most recent one in terms of output losses, banking crises are followed by a medium-term increase of about 37 percentage points in the government gross debt-to-GDP ratio. Measuring the increase in debt in this manner seems more appropriate than some of the measures used in the literature that have provided off-quoted and very…

Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry.

2021

Abstract Our paper is among the first to measure the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Using panel structural vector auto-regression (PSVAR) (Pedroni, 2013) on data from 1995 to 2019 in 185 countries and system dynamic modeling (real-time data parameters connected to COVID-19), we estimate the impact of the pandemic crisis on the tourism industry worldwide. Past pandemic crises operated mostly through idiosyncratic shocks' channels, exposing domestic tourism sectors to large adverse shocks. Once domestic shocks perished (zero infection cases), inbound arrivals revived immediately. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, is different; and recovery of the tourism ind…

Do debt crises boost financial reforms?

2014

"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014"

Resilience and Convergence: Short vs.Long-Run Regional Effects of Economic Crises and Macroeconomic Policies

2020

Before the outbreak of the Great Recession, considerable attention was devoted to what makes a region successful, and why some regions grow faster than others, but researchers often overlooked how regions react to shocks and why this happens in a heterogeneous way. Furthermore, the classic literature on regional inequalities has mainly focused on the longterm relationship between economic growth and regional disparities and on the role of labor mobility, sometimes also as a mechanism of adjustment to labor demand idiosyncratic shocks. This literature trend has reversed since 2008, when investigation of the heterogeneous impact of shocks across areas became prominent in regional studies beca…

Three essays on economic resilience and regional disparities

2017

East Asia in the Global Economy: Theoretical and Empirical Questions for Marxism

2019

As Marxism and socialism pass through watershed years it is important to reflect on the abiding questions of Marxist theory and empirical analysis. This article takes up this task in the context of East Asia under the impetus of globalisation and neo-liberalism, introducing a collection of five articles collected in the special issue. The article shows that questions Marx posed about the global economy more than a century ago remain prescient and continue to animate cutting-edge research, as shown in the articles in this special issue.

Misrecognizing Asylum. Causes, modalities and consequences of the crisis of a fundamental human right.

2017

The so-called contemporary refugee crisis can be defined as a European “right to asylum crisis”, a crisis of its fundamental principles: the protection of asylum seekers’ rights and the related principle of non-refoulement. Modalities and trends marking the recognition of asylum applicants as refugees, and of migrants as asylum seekers, will be considered along with the current implementation of the notion of a “safe country” within the context of EU texts on migration developed since 2015. This “right to asylum crisis” is then briefly analyzed as both a symptom and a cause of the European Union project’s wider political and cultural crisis.

Down and out in Italian towns: Measuring the impact of economic downturns on crime

2016

The paper investigates the effect of local economic conditions on crime. The study focuses on Italy’s local labor markets and analyzes the response of crime to the severe slump of 2007-2011. It shows that the downturn led to a significant increase in economic-related offenses that do not require particular criminal skills or tools (namely, thefts).